← Stochastic Processes for Biology

Exponential waiting times

If events occur at constant rate \(a>0\), the waiting time \(T\) until the next event has an exponential distribution.

\[f_T(t)=ae^{-at},\qquad t\ge0,\]\[P(T>t)=e^{-at},\qquad E[T]=\frac1a.\]

Memoryless property

\[P(T>s+t\mid T>s)=P(T>t).\]

Thus, after waiting for time \(s\) without an event, the remaining waiting-time distribution is unchanged.

Simulation

If \(U\sim\operatorname{Uniform}(0,1)\), an exponential waiting time can be generated by

\[T=-\frac{\ln U}{a}.\]
Key idea. In a CTMC, exponential waiting times arise naturally when the event rate remains constant while the process stays in its current state.