← Stochastic Processes for Biology

Discrete-time Markov chains

A discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) is observed at fixed steps \(n=0,1,2,\ldots\) and satisfies the Markov property.

Transition probabilities

\[p_{ij}=P(X_{n+1}=j\mid X_n=i).\]

For each current state \(i\), the probabilities of all possible next states sum to one.

Evolution of a distribution

With a row probability vector \(\boldsymbol\pi_n\) and transition matrix \(P\),

\[\boldsymbol\pi_{n+1}=\boldsymbol\pi_nP.\]

Trajectory versus distribution

A random draw selects one next state and generates one trajectory. Matrix propagation instead gives probabilities across all states.

Key idea. A DTMC combines fixed observation steps with probabilistic transitions determined by the current state.